Visão Geral do Mercado

Dollar softens and gold advances before US confidence and BoJ inflation updates 

Equipa ADFX

Market Recap 

XAUUSD 
XAUUSD finished the session at 4570.93, up 27.77 or 0.61% from the 4543.16 open, after traversing a 46.97 range that equated to 1.03% of the opening price. The day’s low printed at 4533.06 at 01:00, and price reached the high of 4580.03 at 02:42, a level flagged as a five-day high. The market then stayed within that established band into the 21:29 finish, with the close sitting near the upper end of the range, 9.10 below the high and 37.87 above the low. Round-number references featured on both sides: the early low held above the 4500 handle, while by the close the instrument remained 29.07 below 4600. From an intraday structure standpoint, the low emerged at the session’s outset and the high followed swiftly, leaving a relatively contained range for the remainder of trading while preserving the early gains into the close. On higher timeframes, daily momentum and trend gauges were subdued, with D1 RSI at 36.21 and D1 MACD at -46.15, while the H4 MACD signal line registered -2.94. The close, set close to the top of the day’s extremes and just shy of 4580, capped a session that registered a new five-day high without breaching the 4600 round level, and left the 4500 figure unbroken at the base of the day’s action. 

GBPUSD 
GBPUSD advanced into the close at 1.35, finishing up 0.0046 on the session (0.34%) after ranging 0.0071, or 0.53% of the open, which was 82.8% of the prevailing daily ATR. The day began near 1.34 and quickly marked the session low around 1.34 at 00:10, then worked higher through the session to register the high near 1.35 at 22:40, a 5‑day peak, before settling near the top of the range. Price action therefore progressed from an early dip toward 1.34 to repeated engagement with the 1.35 figure later in the day, with the close in the upper decile of the day’s span. On the intraday backdrop, the H1 RSI14 printed around 65.5, while the H1 EMA21 sat near 1.35 and the market finished marginally above it. On the higher timeframe, the H4 50‑period SMA was positioned near 1.34, leaving the closing level above that reference. Daily momentum gauges were muted, with the D1 MACD signal around zero. Notable reference levels during the session were the round numbers at 1.34, which framed the early low, and 1.35, which capped the late‑session high and into which the market closed. Overall, the session produced a directional day that set a fresh 5‑day high, with the close concentrated near the session’s upper extreme and range metrics tracking below a full daily ATR reading. 

EURUSD 
EURUSD traded within a 24‑pip session on Monday, registering a five‑day high near 1.17 at 15:46 and settling marginally firmer on the day. It opened around 1.16, made an early low near 1.16 at 00:47, and closed back near 1.16, up 0.02%. The day’s range equated to 0.21% of the open and 45.9% of the current D1 ATR, with the close positioned near the middle of the intraday range. Price action held above the 1.16 handle throughout and briefly traded into the upper 1.16s in the afternoon before easing into the close. Intraday structure showed a dip in the opening hour, a steady push higher into mid‑session, and a late fade that left the pair slightly above its opening level by the bell. On the higher‑timeframe backdrop, the 00:47 trough aligned with the H4 21‑EMA around 1.16, while the close at 1.16 sat versus the H1 20‑SMA at 1.16, underscoring proximity to short‑term trend gauges. Despite recording a 5‑day high, spot remained under the 10‑day high near 1.17. Round‑number references were active, with 1.16 acting as an intraday floor and the high edging into the upper‑1.16 region, a zone just shy of the 1.17 handle. By session end, the pair had retained a narrow net gain with limited follow‑through beyond the intraday extremes, leaving price contained within a sub‑half‑ATR day and parked near mid‑range into the daily settlement. 

Economic Calendar Recap & Preview 

No major economic data was released. Looking ahead, Japan’s underlying inflation gauges open the day at 08:00 server time: the BoJ Trimmed Mean Core CPI year over year is expected at 2.1 percent after 2.5 previously, while the BoJ Weighted Median Core CPI year over year is seen at 1.4 percent versus 1.7 prior. If these measures print above forecasts, it would suggest firmer underlying price pressures, which typically reduces the scope for near‑term policy easing. The U.S. calendar centers on the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index at 17:00; consensus looks for 99.7 after 92.8, with attention on labor‑market perceptions and buying plans as signals for household spending momentum. The confidence release could generate brief volatility in U.S. rates, equities, and the dollar around the print. No major policy meetings or central bank speeches are scheduled within the window provided. 

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