Market Overview

Sterling soft and gold advances with focus on US CPI and UK GDP 

ADFX Team

XAUUSD
XAUUSD closed at 4194.39, up 66.9 points or 1.62% on the day, after traversing a 112.83-point range equivalent to 2.73% of the open. Price set the intraday low at 4098.92 at 07:33, dipped briefly below the 4100 mark while remaining above the 4000 handle, and later printed the high at 4211.75 at 20:27 before settling just below 4200. The close sat closer to the day’s high than its low, reflecting a low-before-high progression across the session. Opening at 4127.49, the instrument moved through several round-number areas, trading above 4200 late in the day and ending beneath it. Against intraday trend measures, the 1-hour 20-period simple moving average stood at 4148.15; price opened below this level and finished above it. On higher timeframes, the daily MACD signal reads 42.38 and the 4-hour MACD is 41.29. The push to 4211.75 registered a fresh 5-day and 10-day high. Into the close, XAUUSD retained most of the late-session advance, with the settlement level situated in the upper portion of the day’s range. Overall, the market contained activity between the early dip under 4100 and the evening extension above 4200, with the final print maintaining distance from the session floor and holding above the intraday moving average reference. 

GBPUSD 
GBPUSD marked a five-day low at 1.30838 at 16:29 after an early uptick set the session high at 1.31548 at 10:11. The pair opened at 1.31486 and closed at 1.3124, down 0.00246 on the day, a decline of 0.187%. Price action spanned 0.0071 from high to low, or roughly 0.54% of the opening level, with the close positioned in the upper half of the day’s distribution at about 56.6% of the range measured from the low. The high was only marginally above the open, while the downswing into mid-afternoon established the new five-day trough before a partial rebound into the close left the pair below the opening print but well off the low. The intraday sequence was defined by a morning push to the high around 10:11, a steady descent into the 1.3080s by 16:29, and a subsequent recovery that held beneath the mid-1.31s into the session end at 00:00. From a higher-timeframe perspective, the daily Bollinger Band middle line was at 1.32189, and spot settled beneath that reference. No tick volume data were available. Overall, the session delivered a 71-pip range, with the close nearer the middle-to-upper portion of that span, and registered a net loss on the day while recording a fresh five-day low during the afternoon. 

A quiet tape still offered a couple of signposts: the U.S. 10‑year note auction tailed lower at 4.07 percent, down from 4.12 percent previously, while Japan’s BoJ money stock grew 2.2 percent year over year, edging above both the prior 2.1 percent and a 2.1 percent forecast. The next 24 hours pivot to the UK and U.S. At 09:00 server time, the UK releases October GDP: quarter over quarter growth is projected at 0.2 percent after 0.7 percent previously; year over year is expected to hold at 1.3 percent, matching the prior 1.3 percent; and month over month is seen flat at 0.0 percent, unchanged from 0.0 percent. The U.S. then posts October CPI at 15:30 server time, with the headline month over month rate expected at 0.3 percent, the same as the prior 0.3 percent. If CPI prints higher than forecast, tightening expectations may firm and front‑end yields could rise. No major meetings are scheduled around these releases, but the CPI print can generate outsized intraday swings across Treasuries, the dollar, and equity futures. 

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