Market Overview

Euro slips as dollar firms and commodity currencies soften

ADFX Team

EURUSD 
EURUSD posted a broad session spanning 0.78% of the open, setting fresh 5- and 10-day lows before stabilizing into the close. The pair marked its high at 04:28, briefly trading above 1.16, then slid to the day’s low at 13:10 near 1.15, and finished at 1.16, down 0.003 (-0.254%) from the open. The intraday range outpaced the 14-day ATR, underscoring an above-average amplitude for the period. Price opened around the cluster of medium-term averages on higher timeframes and ended below them: the H4 21-EMA, H4 50-SMA and the D1 20-SMA all sat near 1.16–1.17, while the settlement came in underneath, leaving the close in the lower part of the day’s range. The sequence ran from a firm early test above the 1.16 handle into a steady descent that pressed a new multi-day trough, followed by a modest rebound that failed to retrace the session’s early peak. Round-number dynamics were clear, with the market unable to sustain levels north of 1.16 after the early high and ultimately holding above the 1.15 figure despite the new 5- and 10-day low print. On the daily backdrop, the close below the cited H4 and D1 moving averages keeps spot beneath those reference levels at session end, while the outsized range relative to the recent ATR contextualizes the day as a wider-than-usual move within the ongoing multi-day low-setting phase. 


AUDUSD 
AUDUSD traded within a 65‑pip band on the day, opening at 0.65764, marking the high at 0.65975 at 04:37, and sliding to a low of 0.65325 by 13:10 before settling at 0.65592. That left a net loss of 0.00172, or -0.262%, with an intraday range of 0.0065, equivalent to 0.99% of the open. Price action built an early rise into the 0.6597s, then rotated lower into the early afternoon low, and recovered into the close. The settlement landed in the lower half of the day’s span, with the close positioned around 41% of the distance up from the low, keeping the market below the session midpoint. Throughout, trading held beneath the 0.6600 figure and above 0.6500, with no 100‑pip handle crossed. From a higher‑timeframe perspective, the daily close at 0.65592 remained above the 21‑day EMA at 0.65403 and the 20‑day SMA at 0.65198, placing spot marginally above these commonly watched moving averages into the end of the session. The D1 RSI(14) registered 58.03. By the close, the pair sat 0.00383 beneath the session high and 0.00267 above the low, reflecting a recovery off the trough that did not reclaim the opening level. The sequence left AUDUSD below the open but above nearby daily moving averages, with a contained range between the 0.65 and 0.66 handles and a close that neither challenged the day’s peak nor revisited the low. 

Overnight, the Bank of Japan left its policy rate unchanged at 0.5 percent, matching the prior setting. Looking ahead, at 01:30 server time Tokyo CPI excluding food and energy is expected at 2.3 percent year over year after 2.5 percent previously; at 01:50, Japan retail sales are seen rising 0.3 percent month over month following a 1.1 percent decline. The US Core PCE Price Index is due at 14:30, with a 0.2 percent month over month forecast, the same as the prior 0.2 percent. Also at 14:30, Canada’s GDP year over year is expected to ease to 0.7 percent from 0.9 percent. If Core PCE prints above forecast, expectations for tighter financial conditions may firm. Be alert to potential volatility around the 14:30 releases, which often prompt outsized moves across rates, FX, and equities. 

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