Market Overview

Dollar eases while gold rallies and sterling advances before Fed and BoC decisions 

ADFX Team

Market Recap 

XAUUSD 
XAUUSD ended the session higher, closing at 5180.87, a gain of 166.98 or 3.33% on the day. The period opened at 5013.89 and immediately printed the low at 5013.11 at 01:00, then advanced steadily into late trade to set the high at 5190.69 at 23:49 before settling just below that peak. The intraday range measured 177.58, equivalent to 3.54% of the open, with the close positioned at 94.5% of the day’s span, indicating a finish near the top of the range. Price action moved up through the 5100 handle and held above 5000 throughout, while the close sat 19.13 points below the 5200 handle; the session also crossed a 10‑handle threshold during the advance. The day established fresh 5‑day and 10‑day highs, with the new 10‑day mark aligning with the session high at 5190.69. On the hourly timeframe, the 20‑period simple moving average was at 5091.77, leaving the close above that reference. Structurally, the market set its low on the opening print and progressed to successive higher levels into the final hour, culminating in the late high. By the close, price remained anchored near the upper extreme of the session’s distribution and just shy of the 5200 round number. No tick‑volume data were available. The 10‑day high reference stands at 5190.69 for the next session’s context. 

GBPUSD 
GBPUSD extended higher through the session, finishing at 1.38, up 0.016 or 1.17% from the 1.37 open, after traversing a 0.0205 range equal to 1.5% of the open. Price marked its intraday low around 1.37 at 10:41 before advancing into the US afternoon, clearing the 1.38 handle and printing the day’s high near 1.39 at 22:48; the close sat near the top of the day’s range. The path featured an early dip from the open into the morning low, followed by a steady rise with higher intraday highs, culminating in a late-session push that approached the 1.39 round figure. The day registered new 5‑day and 10‑day highs, placing spot well above the recent 5‑day low at 1.34. On the higher timeframes, the close remained above the H4 50‑SMA near 1.35 and the D1 21‑EMA near 1.35, with intraday action also holding above the H1 21‑EMA around 1.38. Round‑number references were active, with support forming around 1.37 after the morning test and resistance emerging near the 1.39 area into the late‑day high. By the close, GBPUSD was positioned in the upper decile of the session’s distribution, reflecting a day characterized by a morning low followed by persistent gains and a late break to fresh multi‑day highs. No tick‑volume statistics were observed, and no daily ATR comparisons were available.  

AUDUSD 
AUDUSD traded within a contained 0.69 figure through the 00:00–07:28 session, opening at 0.69144 and settling at 0.69096, down 0.00048 on the day (0.07%). Price traced a 0.00221 range, which equated to 46.9% of the daily ATR, with the session high set at 0.69278 at 04:42 and the low printed at 0.69057 at 07:18. The day’s peak sat just below 0.6930, while the trough held above 0.6900; the close was near the lower edge of the range, roughly 4 pips above the session low, after an early push higher gave way to a steady drift lower into the finish. No 10-handle was crossed, and price action remained confined to the 0.69 handle throughout. In terms of structure, the sequence featured initial firming from the open into the 04:42 high, followed by persistent easing that culminated in the late-session low, leaving the settlement in the bottom decile of the day’s span. On higher timeframes, the pair remains elevated relative to the 50-day simple moving average at 0.66497 on the daily chart, while momentum on H4 showed a reading of 72.18 on RSI14. The session’s realized range represented 0.32% of the opening level, underscoring a relatively compressed move compared with recent daily volatility. The closing print near 0.6910 left the pair within sight of the 0.6900 figure and below the earlier 0.6930 inflection from the intraday high. 

Economic Calendar Recap & Preview 

Japanese inflation gauges from the Bank of Japan softened: the Weighted Median Core CPI year over year slowed to 0.8 percent, from 1.3 percent previously and below the 1.6 percent forecast, while the Trimmed Mean Core CPI eased to 1.9 percent year over year, from 2.2 percent previously and matching the 2.2 percent forecast; no other major data were released. Looking ahead, attention centers on two rate decisions. At 16:45 server time, the Bank of Canada announces its policy rate, which stood at 2.0 percent previously; the statement’s tone on growth and inflation will be parsed for guidance on the path ahead. At 21:00, the Federal Reserve releases its interest rate decision, after holding the federal funds rate at 3.75 percent previously; any changes in the policy rate or in balance‑sheet guidance will be closely watched. Economics 101: a higher-than-expected policy rate generally tightens financial conditions by raising borrowing costs, while a lower rate does the opposite. Given the prominence of the Fed announcement, short‑term volatility in rates and the dollar could be elevated around the release. 

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