Market Overview

Yen in focus before BoJ and CPI as gold advances 

ADFX Team

Market Recap 

XAUUSD+ 
XAUUSD finished higher on Thursday, closing at 4936.26 after a session high of 4940.78 at 23:45 and a low of 4772.36 at 03:04. From an open at 4832.06, the contract gained 104.2 points, a 2.156% rise, with intraday range spanning 168.42, or 3.49% of the opening level. Price traded below the 4800 handle early in the session before turning higher, crossing the 4900 handle later on and printing the day’s peak near the 4940 handle; it settled near the top of the day’s range, above the session midpoint at 4856.57. The close sat close to the session extreme, leaving only a narrow gap to the high into the final minutes. Round-number levels featured, with an early dip under 4800 followed by a sustained move above 4900 and a finish near 4940. On the higher timeframes, the daily RSI(14) registered 88.02, and the H1 EMA(21) was marked at 4864.07, with the final print above that reference. The session registered new 5-day and 10-day highs, confirming fresh short-term extremes within the ongoing upswing. Intraday structure was directional after the early trough, with higher lows building into the late-session high at 23:45 and a close that remained tightly aligned with that print. With the session high recorded near the 4940 area and the close anchored nearby, the market concluded near its best levels of the day while maintaining a wide intraday range relative to the open.  

USDJPY 
USDJPY traded entirely within the 158 figure on Thursday, marking a five‑day high before settling slightly higher on the day. After opening at 158.25, the pair briefly slipped to the session low of 158.17 at 02:54, then advanced to the high of 158.89 at 09:14, which remained below the 10‑day high at 159.45. Price consolidated thereafter and closed at 158.35, up 0.10 or 0.064% from the prior session. The intraday range measured 0.72, equivalent to 0.45% of the opening level, with the close positioned in the lower half of that span and modestly above the open. The day’s action held above the 158.00 round level and stopped short of testing 159. On the higher timeframes, the close kept USDJPY above the D1 EMA21 at 157.64 and the D1 Bollinger midline at 157.56, while the D1 MACD printed 0.67. Contextually, the new five‑day high at 158.89 leaves the 10‑day high at 159.45 intact. The sequence of price extremes saw an early low, a morning push to the peak, and a fade into the latter part of the range by the close. No 100‑handle transition was recorded. Overall, the session delivered a contained range within the 158s, a marginal positive daily change, and maintenance of positioning above key daily reference averages without extension to the next big figure.

GBPUSD 
GBPUSD extended higher over the 22 Jan session, closing at 1.35, up 0.0062 or 0.46% from the open. Price ranged 0.01 on the day, equivalent to 0.78% of the opening level. The session marked a low at 1.34 at 13:16 before progressing to the high at 1.35 at 23:34, leaving the close in the upper portion of the day’s range and confirming a low-before-high sequence. The late high established fresh 5‑day and 10‑day peaks, with the advance also engaging the 1.35 round figure into the final half hour. The day began near 1.34 and briefly undercut that level intraday before firming; by the close the pair held above short- and medium-term reference averages, settling over the H1 21‑EMA at 1.35 (1.3464) and above the H4 50‑SMA at 1.34 (1.3431). On the H4 timeframe, the MACD signal hovered around 0.0, indicating a neutral read. Structurally, the recovery from the early afternoon low carried through into late trade to set the session high, with no subsequent retest into the close. The proximity of the close to the top end of the range highlights the late-session momentum, while the interaction with the 1.35 handle provided a clear intraday reference. There was no test of materially lower round figures beyond 1.34. Overall, the session delivered an upward day with a contained intraday span and a finish near the highs, alongside the confirmation of multi‑day highs on the daily ledger. 

Economic Calendar Recap & Preview 

A mixed slate over the last day kept focus on labor and inflation: US initial jobless claims edged up to 200,000 from 198,000 but were well below the 223,000 forecast, indicating only a modest pickup in filings; the US core PCE price index year over year was unchanged at 2.8 percent, slightly above the 2.7 percent consensus; New Zealand CPI accelerated to 3.1 percent year over year from 3.0, overshooting a 2.6 forecast; and Australia’s unemployment rate fell to 4.1 percent from 4.3, beating a 4.3 forecast. Looking ahead, Japan’s inflation and policy dominate the next 24 hours: at 01:30 server time, national core CPI is expected at 2.8 percent year over year after 3.0 previously, while CPI excluding food and energy is seen unchanged at 3.0 after 3.0; these releases land just before the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision at 04:30, with the previous policy rate at 0.75 percent. Later, at 12:00, ECB President Lagarde speaks, offering fresh guidance that could shape euro area rate expectations. If Japanese inflation prints above forecast, tightening expectations may firm. Be mindful of potential volatility in JPY and local rates around the CPI prints and the BoJ announcement. 

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